Mismatch between Trump's Tariff Announcement and Implementation

Trump Announces New Milestone in Tariff Plan

Recently,The latest exchange rate of US dollars and RMB U.S. President Trump announced that formal notification of higher tariff rates would be sent to most trade partners by July 9. He also revealed that several trade agreements are nearing completion. On July 6, during an interview with reporters, Trump said that most countries would receive tariff notification letters or reach agreements by July 9, with some notifications starting as early as July 7 (Monday).

This move by Trump demonstrates his ongoing strategy of using tariffs to exert pressure on other countries, aiming to expedite trade negotiations and secure more achievements to boast about before the U.S. presidential election.

Luteinik Adds: Tariffs Effective August 1

During Trump’s announcement, Commerce Secretary Luteinik added that although the tariff notifications would be completed by July 9, the actual tariff implementation date is set for August 1. This clarification addresses widespread concerns in the market and international community about whether tariffs would be implemented immediately or if there would be a grace period.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent also stated earlier that August 1 is the official effective date for the tariffs, providing countries that have not yet completed negotiations with three weeks to attempt last-minute negotiations or agreements to avoid higher tariff costs.

Countries Urgently Negotiating to Address Tariff Pressure

With Trump’s announcement of the timeline, countries are ramping up negotiations to avoid or reduce the impact of tariffs. The Trump administration has consistently employed a strategy of "threaten first, negotiate later," using tariffs as a bargaining chip to urge countries to make concessions on market access, tariff reciprocity, and other economic issues.

Sources revealed that major U.S. trade partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and India are engaged in intense negotiations at various levels to avoid receiving "high tariff notifications" before July 9 or to negotiate further for a grace period. Some countries are reportedly hoping to secure tariff delays or exemptions by increasing American goods purchases and signing small agreements.

Market Reaction and Business Expectations

The U.S. market is cautious about this "double tariff schedule." Previously, there was a widespread expectation of tariffs taking effect immediately after July 9, which would have applied significant adjustment pressures on businesses. The new effective timetable provides a three-week window for companies to prepare supply chain adjustments, assess cost pass-along strategies, and adjust import-export plans.

Nevertheless, the business community remains concerned that uncertainty in trade policy could drive up costs and disrupt supply chains, potentially impacting inventory plans, capital expenditures, and market strategy during the year-end sales season. Some U.S. companies fear that increased tariffs may have to be passed on to consumers, further escalating domestic inflation pressures.

Impact on Global Supply Chains and Politics

The chaotic implementation of tariff policies also reflects the Trump administration's approach of maintaining flexibility alongside pressure in trade policy, using tariff negotiations as a crucial tool to advance diplomatic agendas and economic strategies.

Analysts suggest that if Trump continues to use tariffs as a negotiating leverage before the election, he might secure more agreements in the short term, but in the long run, it could intensify global trade tensions, disrupt international supply chains, and affect market confidence.

The key Windows for global trade negotiations will be the July 9 tariff notification deadline and the August 1 implementation grace period set by Trump. Whether countries can avoid increased tariffs by the deadlines will directly impact international trade patterns, global market fluctuations, and business investment decisions in the medium to long term.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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